Arizona’s 2026 Election: What’s at Stake

By Kirk Adams

With the primary election behind us, Arizona’s political landscape is finally set. The candidates are known, and the next three months will determine not only who occupies the Ninth Floor but also both chambers of the legislature. 

Having spent years at the legislature and Governor’s office, I’ve learned that elections are rarely won on a single issue. They are won by organization, resources, message discipline, and perhaps most importantly, by convincing independent voters that your vision for Arizona deserves their trust. 

The Registration Numbers Tell the Story

Arizona remains one of the nation’s premier battleground states and the registration numbers reveal two important realities. 

First, Republicans start every statewide race with an advantage of over 300,000 registered voters over Democrats. Additionally, nearly every legislative swing district has moved more Republican over the last four years. 

Second, but arguably more important, nearly 1.5 million Arizona voters have declined to register with either party. These voters will almost certainly decide the statewide races and competitive legislative districts. 

Governor’s Race

Governor Katie Hobbs is seeking a second term against Congressman Andy Biggs. Incumbency has historically been one of the strongest advantages in Arizona – no sitting Governor has lost re-election in more than 50 years. Hobbs also has a fundraising advantage that has already translated into an aggressive statewide television campaign that gives Democrats a significant headstart in defining both Governor Hobbs and likely soon to turn to defining her opponent. Additionally, the party not in power in the White House typically enjoys an advantage in midterm elections and that is likely to be especially true when the President’s polling numbers are falling. 

History and money favors incumbents but Arizona voters have never been afraid to make history. Biggs has several strengths of his own. Republicans hold a significant voter registration advantage, enthusiastic support from his base, and border security remains an important issue for many registered Arizona voters. 

One key question will be who gets the blame for the affordability challenges that are front and center for Arizona voters – the party that controls DC or the party that controls the Governor’s office. 

The Legislature May be the Biggest Prize

As someone who served as Speaker of the House, I can confidently say that the most consequential election this November may not be for Governor at all. While the Governor has the bully pulpit and can veto bills, Legislative action is required to change the law. 

Control of the Legislature determines committee chairmanships, the state budget, tax policy, education funding, healthcare legislation, and nearly every other major public policy debate.

Republicans currently control both chambers and have for decades, but this year Democrats smell an opportunity. 

Arizona has a history of voters who split their ticket – we used to call them the Ducey Sinema voters. They are likely the ones who will determine the outcome again. Will they vote for a check on both party’s power by giving each the control of one branch? Are they so fed up with grocery bills that they vote to toss out any incumbent they can?  

The Big Prize

While every election is described as historic, this one may actually deserve that label and neither party can take victory for granted. But maybe more important than this election is what it might reveal about the next one. The race for the Presidency in 2028 will once again run through swing state Arizona. Democrats hope to leverage large investments in this midterm election into victory in 2028, while Republicans hope to keep the state in the red column. There’s a lot on the line this November, not just for Arizona, but what it might foreshadow for the rest of the nation.